EURUSD Forex Forecast (9 — 13 July 2012)

Dealing Center NordFX

EURUSD Forex Forecast for the next trading week: 9 — July 13, 2012

1) Last week closed a confident sales of candles, and candles which rewrote all corrective candles, with respect to the downward trend.

2) Updated at least June 1, 2012.

All this of course means the priority of the downtrend, but also should pay attention to the divergence of the MACD on the intervals: H1, D1, W1. Who speak of a possible pullback up …

I want to draw your attention that the first goal for the downward movement since the correction is made — at least rewritten June 1, 2012, with the number of trend lines and channels formed in the chart a lot, of course tried to remove the excess, but all the same they remain sufficient number of of … For this reason I want to emphasize the main lines that are a priority:

1) The green line is a long-term channel bottom — its breakdown, or retreat from it is important, in my opinion.

2) a background of pink retest the channel bottom-up

3) The red line is a long-term trend, it will probe the way up, though retest is still possible, at least for a temporary rollback of it down.

4) The dark blue line channel

5) The top blue line of the channel long-term

6) The bottom line is the blue channel long-term (it is quite possible price for it now and moving).

All the other trend lines and channels are just as important, but a little less described above. Although besieged by them, it is possible!

Now let’s look at important levels, which are necessary to pay attention when driving up prices:

1) On Friday, the price went up to the bottom line of the black channel, there was a rebound from its lower limit and the day closed in that channel. Based on this, hang up of course possible, with the goal of profit — retest punched in the blue channel Friday, 61.8% + level (unless at least Friday will not be overwritten). Stop-loss is certainly better placed below the low of Friday.

2) the level of 1.2347 + retest the blue channel, which has written to in paragraph (1). Break of this level and the blue line and channel + is desirable to retest it opens the way to the next level of resistance.

3) This level — a level of 38.2% Fibonacci of the total downward movement last week. Well, if this level of time coincides with the upper limit of black channel.

4) retest pink background channel, because the price is still broke through this channel and it did not come back. Retest — a good place to sell, well, if at the same time, we wait for some more confirmation signals. The breakdown of this channel and may retest the top-down — a signal to buy.

5) level of 61.8% Fibonacci of the total downward movement last week. Plus, if you still get the top line of the channel background — this is doubly good.

6) The top line of the blue channel

7) 1.2650 — Fibonacci 38.2% of the total downward movement, with a maximum of 1 May 2012 (provided that at least will not be re-written last week)

8) Red long-term trend line — a situation described above.

9) The top line is the background of pink + channel might dark blue line of the channel. Retest them — a signal to sell. Break — a signal to enter the purchase order to a minimum long-term top line of the blue channel.

10) The top line of the long-term channel — a situation described in the past forex forecast.

Now let’s consider the options transactions for the downward movement:

After the census, a minimum of 1 June, we can assume that the price moves in the background downwards blue channel if this is true, then the immediate goal of profit — the bottom line of this channel + I personally believe that another goal — a long low line of blue channel.

That is, these two goals, I personally recommend taking a guide, if the price goes down of course …

1) If the price of a minimum of rewriting the past week + punches a black and blue channel trend line, then the next target for the price — light green retest the trend line + long dark green. From this long line of course possible to hang up first to retest the black channel and more about the forecast for the purchases. But if the price is still green breaks down long-term trend line and the day closes below it — it is quite possible, and further downward movement. Well if you still happen in this retest this bottom-up line.

2) The next level — a level of congestion Fibonacci Extensions 138.2% + 161.8% — 1,2113-1,2090. From this line can hang up at least for the retest of dark green channel.

3) 1.2009 — a level increase of 161.8% Fibonacci pink. At this level, can still match the price and the approach to the brown trend lines for the retest.

4) Bottom line is the background of blue channel. Can hang up. But if it is desirable to retest the sample and the presence of additional signals, then the next goal — the bottom line of the blue long-term channel.

5) At the Blue Line, the long-term channel and probably will stop its forecast. Although if the price breaks and, the next goal — retest lilac tench trend or lower red line long term. But I do not think the price is so fast, «come» to this level …

As for my personal opinion, I believe that the clear up next week of course possible (at least within the correction to the entire movement), but it is desirable that the price strayed from green tench and long-term trend reversal signals appeared as sell against the trend — it is as «not good» and not only is dangerous! A reversal signal (or rather signals forex backlash, which could turn into a reversal or not) except MACD divergence, I do not see …

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